April 2021 Market Report
After all of the hullaballoo over the great exodus from San Francisco, a phenomenon is beginning to emerge: Anecdotally, I’ve had a bunch of buyers come out of the woodwork who fled the city in the early days of the pandemic and are now focusing their attention back, looking to get in the market as their employers begin to rethink entirely remote workforces. It will take time for the data to bear out on this, but I expect to see renewed interest in the condo market in San Francisco, especially as more people get vaccinated.
Q1 is typically a slow quarter, its sales and sales prices mostly reflecting activity during the mid-winter holiday “doldrums,” as the market gradually wakes up in the new year. But business went crazy this past winter sales peaked for the year in Q420—and this year’s first quarter activity was far higher than Q120.
Interest rates, though still extremely low by historical standards, have climbed 20% since their all-time low in January.
Q121 vs Q120, Selected Statistics
Median house sales price up 6.5%
Median 2BR condo price down 10.6%
Home sales volume up 60%
Luxury house sales up 51%
Luxury condo sales up 39%
San Francisco House Price Appreciation
Median House Sales Prices, 2012 — Present, by Quarter
San Francisco Median 2-BR Condo Sales Prices
Monthly Median Sales Prices, 3-Month Rolling Figures, Since 2010
New Listings Coming on Market
San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Active Listings on Market
San Francisco Real Estate Market Dynamics
Listings Pending Sale
San Francisco Real Estate Market Dynamics
For house and condo listings pending sale (in contract)
Sales Volume by Quarter
San Francisco Market Dynamics since 2016
San Francisco Luxury Home Sales since 2018
Houses - $3 Million+, Condos - $2 Million+, by Quarter
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers by Quarter
San Francisco Market Dynamics since late 2017
Average Days on Market by Quarter
San Francisco Market Dynamics since 2019
Overbidding List Prices in San Francisco
Percentage of Sales Closing over List Price, since 2015
6-month rolling sales data reported to MLS through 3/31/21, per Infosparks
Sales Price to Original List Price (SP-OP) Percentage by Quarter
San Francisco Market Dynamics since 2018
Comparative Review of Neighborhood & District Markets
Supply and demand trends — represented by statistics such as supply of inventory, home-price appreciation, time on market, overbidding asking prices, and so on — that characterize the city's overall market also, unsurprisingly, generally pertain to its districts and neighborhoods. But there are often significant differences in dynamics between neighborhoods tied to the specific balance (or imbalance) between buyer demand and the supply of listings for sale.
Property type — house or condo (small building or high-rise) — and how affordable or expensive an individual market is within the context of San Francisco's general cost of housing are often the major factors — though there are certainly other economic and demographic issues at play. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.
The following analyses review and compare San Francisco house and condo neighborhoods by a number of statistical measures.
There is a map delineating the city's many neighborhoods following the graphs and tables.
Statistics are generalities and anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller district and neighborhood markets with fewer sales and wide ranges in sales prices.
San Francisco House Sales Statistics
6 Months Sales through Mid-March 2021
San Francisco Home Sizes
Median HOUSE Square Footage — Selected Neighborhoods
San Francisco Condo Sales Statistics
6 Months Sales of 2-Bedroom, 2-Bath Condos
Sales Price to List Price Differences
on San Francisco Home Sales Accepting Offers within 30 Days
Mortgage Interest Rate Trends, 2016 — Present
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings
Rates published by the FHLMC, January 7, 2016 — Present