May 2021 Market Report
Photo ©Travis Monson (@travismonsonphotography on Instagram, travismonsonphotography.com). Used with permission.
We are now beginning to see the arc of the impact the pandemic had on the real estate market in San Francisco. At least for now, we appear to be on the other side of it, and life in general seems to be returning to some semblance of how things were before—including the promise of the return of open houses. Competition remains as fierce as ever, with interest rates remaining at historic lows, but we can now clearly see an uptick in interest in the condo market, which suffered during the darkest days of lockdown, though of course single-family homes still remain in peak demand.
Year-to-Date, Year-over-Year Changes
Comparing Jan.-April 2021 with Jan.-April 2020
Median house sales price: + 9%, $1,706,000 in 2021 YTD
Median house $/sq.ft. value: + 3%
Median 2-BR condo sales price: - 7%, $1,280,000 in 2021 YTD
Median condo $/sq.ft. value: - 5%
Total sales volume: + 87%*
Active listings at end of month: + 24% (4-month average)
Luxury house sales, $3M+: + 99%*
Luxury condo & co-op sales, $2M+: + 101%*
Months supply of inventory, houses: - 21% (less supply)
Months supply of inventory, condos: + 28% (more supply)
House median days on market: down to 11 from 14 days
Condo median days on market: up to 31 from 18 days
House — % of sales over list price: flat at 71% - 72% of sales
Condo — % of sales over list price: down to 38% from 56% of sales
House — median SP to LP %: down to 107% from 109% of list price**
Condo — median SP to LP %: down to 100% from 101% of list price
* The pandemic and shelter-in-place had a large impact on April 2020 sales figures.
** "SP" = sales price; "LP" = list price — percentages over 100% indicate overbidding (on average transaction)
Activity reported to MLS, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Late reported activity may change figures, though typically only slightly. All numbers approximate.
San Francisco Median Sales Price Trends
Median Sales Prices since 2012 - 3-Month Rolling Figures
Fluctuations in median sales prices are common, and broad trends over longer periods of time are more meaningful than short-term changes. Each median sales price on this chart reflects 3 months of sales. Median sales prices are subject to seasonal fluctuation, among other factors.
Sales reported to MLS, per Infosparks through 4/30/21
San Francisco Home Value Appreciation
Median Dollar per Square Foot Values - 3 Month Rolling, Since 2012
Unlike other local counties, the median $/sq.ft. value for condos typically runs higher than that for houses. However, condo values are well below their peak, while house values have hit new highs. Dollar per Square Foot is based upon interior living space and doesn't include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks or patios. Not all sales report square footage. All numbers are approximate and subject to revision.
Sales reported to MLS per Infosparks.
The Year of the Pandemic
San Francisco, Year-over-Year Change in Home Sales Volume
Comparing home sales volumes in the 12 months since the pandemic struck to sales in the previous 12 months, by price segment*
In the year since the pandemic hit, sales of larger homes notably increased, while sales of 15% the smallest (almost all being condos) slightly dropped. 2-bedroom homes (also mostly condos) were the largest segment of the 4 illustrated, making up 36% of total home sales.
*Residential sales reported to MLS, April 1 to March 31 of 2 successive 12-month periods, per Infosparks. In this chart, the term "condos" also includes co-ops and TICs. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Median House Sales Price Trends
Median Sales Prices by Year, Selected San Francisco Neighborhoods, since 2012
House sales reported to MLS by 4/30/21
Partial year data should be considered preliminary until full year data is available. Median sales prices can be affected by other market factors besides changes in fair market value. In some districts, new condo construction makes year-over-year, apples-to-apples price comparisons difficult. Upper floor units typically sell for a large premium over lower units.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Multiple neighborhood values are averages of median sales prices. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
San Francisco Market Supply & Demand Months
Supply of Inventory, since 2018, by Property Type
After shelter-in-place was implemented, the supply of homes for sale, as measured by months supply of inventory*, climbed, or in the case of condos, soared. But since December, the supply and demand balance readjusted to reflect a much stronger market.
* Months Supply of Inventory measures how long it would take to sell the existing inventory of listings for sale at the 12-month-average monthly rate of sale. Lower readings indicate stronger demand as compared to supply. Higher readings indicate higher supply as compared to demand.
MLS data per Infosparks. Last reading may change with late reported activity. Does not include new-project condo activity unreported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Active Listings vs. Listings Pending Sale (in Contract)
San Francisco Real Estate Market Dynamics
For houses and condos
A comparison of the # of active listings on the market on a typical day within the month (supply) with the # of listings in contract (demand). There is a seasonal ebb and flow, but the closer the lines, the tighter the supply as compared to buyer demand.
After softening dramatically in the pandemic's 15t 5-6 months, the supply and demand dynamic has rapidly tightened up again.
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Price Reductions on Active Listings San Francisco
Real Estate Market Dynamics & Seasonality
For houses and condos
The number of price reductions usually climbs at the end of the spring selling season before the market (typically) slows down for summer, and surges at the end of the autumn selling season before the (usual) big mid-winter slowdown. (In 2020, sales volume peaked in December.)
The SF market softened in the first 5-6 months after the pandemic struck, but then heated back up.
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
San Francisco Long-Term Luxury House Sales Trends
12-Month Rolling Sales Volumes since 2005
Each data point reflects 12 months of MLS sales: Average monthly sales volumes = 1/12 of these compiled figures. Using 12-month rolling data removes the effect of seasonality on sales.
As reported to MLS, per Infosparks through 3/31/21. Chart lines & columns reflect sales reported to MLS, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
San Francisco Long-Term Luxury Condo, Co-op, TIC Sales
12-Month Rolling Sales Figures, since 2005
The luxury condo market is very sensitive to economic conditions, such as the stock market, which peaked in 2015, 2018, early 2020, and early 2021. And, of course, the pandemic was a huge factor in the market, starting in spring 2020.
Each data point reflects 12 months of MLS sales, which eliminates seasonality as a factor. Average monthly sales volumes = 1/12 of these compiled figures. Does not include new luxury condo project sales unreported to MLS.
Sales reported to MLS per lnfosparks. Sales reported to MLS only. Not all sales in this price segment are reported — many new project condo sales, for example. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.